KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 23 — CIMB Treasury and Markets Research has maintained its forecast for Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 4.5 per cent in 2026, despite the United States (US) Supreme Court striking down the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs on February 20, including its reciprocal tariffs.
After the American apex court's decision, US President Donald Trump reinstated a 15 per cent tariff on February 24 for 150 days, cutting levies on most Asian exporters.
CIMB said the decision to retain the projection is based on the fact that the tariff regime and trade agreements remain in flux.
“Under a more constructive scenario where the 15 per cent tariff is sustained with minimal net impact from substitution effects, Malaysia (+0.10 per cent pt) could see potential growth uplift.
“With robust export tailwinds, the decline in US effective tariffs from 15.3 per cent to 13.2 per cent does not move the needle on growth or policy rates,” it said in a research note today.
CIMB Treasury and Markets Research added that refunds from the US$150 billion (RM583.6 billion) to US$175 billion (RM680.9 billion) in IEEPA tariffs are likely to be partial and staggered due to legal procedures.
