KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 22 — Kenanga Research has revised its forecast for Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 5.0 per cent, higher than its earlier estimate of 4.0 per cent.
It is premised on stronger-than-expected economic performance despite recent signs of export softness.
The research house said the upward revision lifts its full-year 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.8 per cent.
“While November’s export softness signals near-term weakness, we expect a rebound ahead of the Chinese New Year season,” Kenanga said in a note today.
Potential impacts from the United States tariff measures are expected to be delayed until next year, limiting immediate downside risks to growth in 2025.
On trade performance, it said export growth eased to 7.0 per cent in November from 15.7 per cent in October, marking the weakest pace in three months and falling below expectations.
Month-on-month, exports declined 5.6 per cent, compared with a 6.7 per cent increase in October, in line with seasonal trends as November typically records softer growth.
Meanwhile, Kenanga said import growth strengthened, driven mainly by higher imports of capital goods and intermediate goods.
