KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 15 — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained its projection for Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.5 per cent this year and 4 per cent in 2026.
According to its October 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) update released yesterday, titled Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim, the IMF had previously set Malaysia’s 2024 GDP at 5.1 per cent.
For emerging markets and developing economies, the IMF has forecast growth to moderate to 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 4 per cent in 2026 from 4.3 per cent in 2024.
It said this is virtually unchanged from the July WEO Update and is a cumulative upward revision of 0.6 percentage point from the April 2025 WEO.
It is lower than the October 2024 forecast by a cumulative 0.2 percentage point, with low-income developing countries experiencing a larger downward revision than middle-income economies, said the IMF.
As for growth in emerging and developing Asia, it is expected to decline from 5.3 per cent in 2024 to 5.2 per cent in 2025 and further to 4.7 per cent in 2026, said the IMF.
It added for quite a few countries in the region — particularly in Asean, among the most affected — the evolution of growth forecasts largely mimic that of effective tariff rates.
“In China, the 2025 GDP growth forecast was revised downwards by 0.6 percentage point in the April 2025 WEO, with the escalation of trade tensions between China and the United States, and then upwards by 0.8 percentage point in the July WEO Update, following the pause on higher rates in May,” it said.
IMF also stated a stronger-than-expected outturn in the past few quarters, reflecting front-loading in international trade and relatively robust domestic consumption supported by fiscal expansion in 2025, which more than offset the headwinds from higher uncertainty and tariffs.
