KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 23 — Malaysia’s aviation passenger traffic is now forecast to recover to 94 per cent this year, a sharp increase from the modest four per cent growth initially projected, MIDF Research said.
In a research note today, the firm recently revised its passenger traffic forecasts for Malaysia due to industry challenges, including aircraft delivery delays and shortages of parts and labour.
“That said, the recent appreciation of the ringgit against the dollar and easing fuel prices are benefiting airlines, as most of their expenses, particularly jet fuel, are US dollar-denominated.
“We also anticipate that the high-yield environment will persist, with average fares likely to rise as Malaysia Airlines temporarily reduces capacity by 20 per cent for the rest of the year,” it said.
MIDF also noted that key international markets driving the increase in passenger traffic were Indonesia, China and India.
It anticipates that the trend for China and India will continue, supported by the reciprocal 30-day visa-free travel policy, which China is extending for Malaysians until December 2025.
Notably, as of the end of the second quarter of 2024, China’s and India's recovery rates stood at 98 per cent and 93 per cent, respectively.
“Meanwhile, the domestic sector recovery registered a slight 2.3 per cent year-on-year in August 2024, driven by Subang Airport’s jet operations following the introduction of new services by local airlines,” the firm added.
MIDF expects this sector’s recovery to stay within the 80 to 90 per cent range for the remainder of the year, constrained by capacity limits as airlines focus on international markets with stronger demand.
As a result, MIDF Research maintained its ‘neutral’ rating on the sector, with Capital A Bhd remaining its top sectoral pick, as its aviation business has been less affected by recent disruptions. Its target price for Capital A was set at RM1.06.
“We believe its fleet activation and expansion plans position it well to address capacity gaps,” it added.
— Bernama
